Susceptibility to anchoring effects: How openness-to-experience influences responses to anchoring cues. Lioking uncertainty in physical constants. Probabilistic mental models: A Brunswikian theory of confidence.
Harvard Graduate School of Education. The authors this article under the terms of the Creative Commons Attribution 3.
Reasons for confidence. Self-monitoring and the association between confidence and accuracy.
Journal of Personality Assessment, 48, — Soll, J. We investigated variables that predicted differences in the tendency to be persistent in information search.
Journal of Personality and Social Psychology, 51, — Gilovich, D. To summarize, this study replicated the findings of Study 1 in a naturalistic prediction setting. Actively open-minded thinking was related to information acquisition and greater prediction coherence, or consistency between the prediction and the information acquired.
Counterfactual reasoning and accuracy in predicting personal events. The role of individual differences in the accuracy of confidence judgments.
Cutler, B. Perceptual and Motor Skills, 34, — Open Mind Consulting Open Mind offers research and consulting services that help advance social change and enhance the stability of nonprofits working to create a better world.
Pallier, G. A simple remedy for overprecision in judgment. Boys will be boys: Gender, overconfidence, and common stock investment.
LAST 4 should be reverse coded. Learning and Individual Differences, 17, — Rationality as process and as product of thought.
Wolfe, R. London: Lawrence Erlbaum Associates. Featured Project. Need lopking cognition and order of communication as determinants of opinion change. To the degree that this skill can be taught, it should be used to improve forecasting. High AOT individuals invested more effort in acquiring information, which, in turn, improved the quality of their estimates.
Running experiments on Amazon Mechanical Turk. Organizational Behavior and Human Decision Processes,— Our studies demonstrate a positive relationship between AOT and better forecasting.
Psychological Review,— The efficient assessment of need for cognition. McElroy, T. Journal of Abnormal and Social Psychology, 63, — Our support this prediction. Effects of lookkng beliefs, epistemological beliefs, and need for cognition on interpretation of controversial issues.
The moderator-mediator variable distinction in social psychological research: Conceptual, strategic, and statistical considerations. When choice is demotivating: can one desire too much of a good thing? Overconfidence and the Big Five.